Left of College Station

National Politics: Obama Transition

President Elect Barack Obama has begun to choose is White House staff, and his first selection was Rahm Emanuel for White House Chief of Staff. Emanuel is a Congressman from Illinois's 5th congressional district, and was the Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for the 2006 midterm elections. According to Politico.com the selection “was a powerful signal of Obama’s determination to be effective under the existing rules of the Washington game.” While John Nichols of the Nation described the selection of Emanuel as “best understood as a disappointing choice rather than a definitional selection.” Jacob Weisberg of Slate described Emanuel in 1996 as “the [Clinton] administration's most diabolically effective tactician.” While Noam Scheiber of the New Republic made a case for Emanuel because no one else had the “combination of policy chops, Hill knowledge, and the understanding of how to mobilize voters that he'll need to pass major initiatives like healthcare reform.”

What Rahm Emanuel symbolizes is that while we can expect an Obama Administration to be bi-partisan, we can also expect to see the administration aggressively perusing Obama’s agenda. The role of the Chief of Staff is to execute the President’s agenda, and no one has argued that Emanuel will not be able to execute with proficiency. There have been those that have characterized Emanuel as a partisan, and there have been those that have characterized him as moderate. However, it does not matter, what matters is whether or not he will be able to execute what it is a President Obama will ask him to do. Barack Obama ran one of the most discipline campaigns that have been seen in politics, and the appointment of Emanuel symbolizes that an Obama White House will be just as disciplined.

Robert Gibbs was reported by Politico.com yesterday to be President Elect Obama’s choice for Press Secretary; the choice of Gibbs as the voice of an Obama Administration has been talked about for several months and it is widely regarded as a perfect fit. Gibbs was communications director of Obama's Senate office, and was Senior Strategist for Communications and Message for the Obama campaign for the presidency. Gibbs became the prototype for progressives and liberals for how to aggressively counter the attacks of conservative media pundits when he took on Sean Hannity on Fox News after the second Presidential Debate at Belmont University. What Gibbs will bring to the podium will be the ability to convey the Administration’s policy and agenda to the media and the public with authority, and to remain calm and collected during questioning from the White House press corps.

Obama met with his economic team in Chicago this afternoon, after which he held his first press conference as the President Elect. Behind him stood an array of economic voices to his right stood his Vice President Elect and to his left stood his new Chief of Staff. Obama’s opening remarks began with an overview of the current economic climate including the new unemployment numbers. The first priority Obama outlined was a rescue plan for the middle class; Obama laid out the rest of his plan for repairing the economy.

Then Obama answered questions from the press for the first time as President Elect. Obama made it clear that a stimulus package should be passed either now or shortly after the new administration takes office. “I want to see a stimulus package sooner rather than later.” Also, Obama reiterated more than once that there is only one President at a time, and that he will do his best to send the right messages to the nation and the world. In his last answer Obama said, “My priority is how do we grow the economy, how do we create more jobs.”

By the way, Obama named two criteria for the new dog or puppy: it should be hyper-allergenic and a rescue dog.

Texas Politics: Direction of Texas Politics is Uncertain

In Texas the Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives is being sought after by nine representatives, including five Democrats and four Republicans (including the Current Speaker of the House Tom Craddick). Phillip Martin of the Burnt Orange Report clarified the major issue that concerns the next Speaker of the House, “What is the status quo that is not acceptable? Simple: every Member should be treated equal. Republicans should not be pressured to vote against their districts. Democrats should not be held to any previous litmus test.” According to the Dallas Morning News House Democratic Caucus Chairman Jim Dunnam said, “I have a problem today, I can't stop smiling. Stick a fork in Tom Craddick. He's done."

Make no doubt about it, who becomes the Speaker of the House will determine the direction that the House of Representatives takes in the upcoming legislative session. The question is whether or not Democrats and Republicans will come together in bi-partisan cooperation to vote in a new Speaker of the House. Jim Keffer and Tommy Merritt could make serious challenges to Speaker Craddick and could garner bi-partisan support.

According to an article in the Austin American-Statesman Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has indicated that the results of the election have not changed her mind to run for governor and resign two years before her term ends and that Texas would be “Texas would be actually well positioned because John Cornyn.” Hutchison is positioning herself for a challenge of Governor Rick Perry in the Republican primary and a very realistic chance to defeat Perry and eventually win the gubernatorial election; Democrats will have a real chance to take the Senate seat in a special election without the burden of facing an incumbent. However, Capitol Annex has reported that Congresswoman Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth) has announced that she will not seek another term as vice-chair of the House Republican Conference, fueling speculation that she is positioning herself for a race for U.S. Senate if and when U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison steps down to run for governor.

According to a interview with the Houston Chronicle Houston Mayor Bill White may be considering a run for Governor, and could seriously challenge the Republican nominee. If Hutchison where to lose a primary bid to Governor Perry or the gubernatorial election to the Democratic nominee she could be weakened by what would probably be a tough primary battle or gubernatorial election. There are apparent paths for the Democrats to take back either the Governor’s mansion or a Senate seat in Washington. However, the dust is yet to settle from Tuesday’s election; the next two years will be critical in determining Texas’s political direction.

The Young Conservatives of Texas (YCT) Texas A&M University Chapter garnered some unfortunate publicity yesterday, and it was the politics of the lowest common denominator that can be expected from the YCT.

The Anti-Obama “carnival” took place on the Texas A&M campus in Rudder Plaza, and according to the KBTX report the YCT “encouraged students to throw eggs at a large picture of Barack Obama during a campus demonstration. It was part of what the group called an "anti-Obama carnival. Conservatives said the egg toss was symbolic of Obama's economic policies.”

In an interview with KBTX Jay Cunningham, the Executive Director of the YCT, characterized the event as a “great success.” Cunningham also said that YCT wanted to bring up issues that they believe Obama supports such as “redistribution of wealth.”

Texas A&M University released the following statement:

A university campus is a marketplace of ideas. While we found today's activity offensive and not representative of Texas A&M's core values, we certainly respect the free speech of students on our campus. We are of the opinion that there are more appropriate and constructive ways to engage in a dialogue in advance of the upcoming elections.

The truth is that this embarrasses Texas A&M University; this type of activity is unnecessary and does not add to the political discourse in a constructive way. Texas A&M University does not benefit from this type of media exposure.

The YCT Chairman Tony Listi said in a Texas A&M University Battalion article that the “YCT will treat each and every Aggie, liberal or conservative or otherwise, with respect and take caution to ensure that the means and style of communication do not undermine this fundamental respect of person.” (emphases added) The YCT did not exercise caution or even critical thinking skills when they decided that this type of event would further the political discussion or promote their idea of conservatism.

This truly highlights that the YCT would much rather focus on negatively attacking a political candidate that they oppose rather than positively promoting a candidate that they favor. The YCT state organization did not endorse a candidate for President; however, the YCT Texas A&M Chapter does support Rob Curnock’s campaign despite the fact that he was not endorsed by the YCT state organization. The Texas A&M chapter could promote the Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, or Charles Baldwin who was endorsed by Congressman Ron Paul who was himself endorsed by the YCT state organization.

The YCT right to free speech is protected under the First Amendment, and their right to freedom of speech was not infringed upon. Texas A&M University did not force the YCT to discontinue their event; however, over three hundred students gathered to protest the event using their freedom of speech.

Cunningham claimed to want to “spark conversation among the students” and to get them to “talk about the issues.” However, the YCT are not concerned with political discourse. There are more creative and thoughtful ways of sparking conversations, not to mention that the argument that they are making with the egg metaphor is flawed. Also, the event was not approved by the university as the YCT claimed. According to an article in the Battalion Vice President and Associate Provost for Diversity Tito Guerrero said the event was “highly offensive and repugnant. The group has the right to express themselves but I question the wisdom of doing so in this way."

The students that protested the event included students that are voting for and have already voted for both Senator Obama and Senator McCain. This was not about Democrats or Republicans, liberals or conservatives. Those on both sides agreed that the event did not add to the political discourse. The YCT do not represent the majority of views held by Republicans, they represent the views of the minority of the ultra-conservative. These are the views of the affluent, privileged, xenophobic few that possess no intellectual curiosity.

This blog is about liberal ideas; however, many have referred to these ideas as progressive. That is appropriate. Because it reminds us that the ideas of the farthest right of the conservative movement are regressive, and perhaps it suggest a name change. The Young Regressives of Texas: politics of the lowest common denominator, again.

Special Note:

Freedom of Speech Done Right

For those of us that would like to see freedom of speech used as a mechanism for understanding and progress we invite you to join us this Monday, November 3rd, at Rudder Plaza from 11-4 p.m. for "Free Speech Done Right.”

Monday at Rudder Fountain there will be acoustic music, poetry readings, and an open mic for anyone that wants to talk about what free speech means to them.

Association For Social Entrepreneurship (Texas A&M University Chapter)

“The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking.” I am not exactly sure what Republican pollster Bill McInturff means by impressive strides. According to the Gallup Daily tracking poll since October 20^th Senator Obama has not dropped below 50% in the poll and Senator McCain has not risen above 43%.

This morning on MSNBC McInturff pushed the idea that the majority of undecided voters, which is between four and eight percent, will break for McCain.

In Pennsylvania, where the McCain campaign has been spending a substantial amount of time and money, Obama has maintained a lead as large as 14 points and Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama leading the state 52.5%-41.5%. Generally speaking if a candidate is poll above fifty percent it is difficult for the opponent to have a realistic chance of winning; not only is McCain going to have to shave off 2.5% of Obama’s lead but all of the 6% of undecided will have to break for McCain. This means that in order for McCain to win you are talking about a 9 point swing in one week.

However, in Ohio where the Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama leading 49.1%-43.3% McCain still has a significant chance of winning the state. With 8% of the electorate still undecided if the votes break at upwards of 70% in Ohio towards McCain, as MSNBC Political Director Chuck Todd suggest, then Ohio can be in reach for McCain. However, McCain’s polling numbers have been trending down in Ohio over the last week while Obama’s polling numbers have remained strong.

In Florida the Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama only leading 48.6%-45.1%, and if 70% of the undecided voters break for McCain he could win Florida. However, in the last week McCain’s numbers have been trending down in Florida while Obama’s have been trending up. What is the most significant thing about Ohio and Florida is that McCain must win both to have a realistic chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.  

The problem with McInturff analysis and even Todd’s take is that this election is not a prototypically election by any stretch of the imagination, and in fact November 4^th could change much of political theory. Also, one must take into account that the polls could be actually showing Obama’s numbers lower than they actual are. Pollsters tend to use a model their polls in a way that could be outdated. Last month there were reports about a Pew Research Center study which concluded that “growing population of cell-only users from public opinion polls may slightly skew the results.” Also, pollsters tend not to consider people who have not voted in the last two election cycles as likely voters, and in this election there may well be a record amount of new voters.

Reid Wilson of Real Clear Politics called the memo “infotainment;” Chuck Todd characterization of the memo was to “improve the morale of the party.” Perhaps if the GOP and Republican voters really want a moral boost they should check out Bill O’Reilly’s electoral map at Fox News. That map has to be one of the most ridiculous pieces of electoral analysis; Obama is actually behind McCain in the electoral count 189-183. States where Obama has large double digit leads like Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan, O’Reilly has listed as “toss-up.” Whether or not Bill O’Reilly is actually in touch with reality is a toss-up.

Tomorrow:

Veteran Bloggers: The Case Against Senator John McCain

This vlog has been posting for about a month; This Week in Blackness is a commentary by Elon James White. It is topical and funny, and covers culture and politics.

On National Security…

McCain: “We don’t have time for on the job training.”

Obama: “Senator McCain and George Bush’s policy has not worked for America.”

On Doctrine on Military Intervention…

Obama: “We may not have national security issues at stake, but we may have moral issues at stake.”

McCain: “Senator Obama would have brought our troop hope in defeat, I will bring them home in victory with honor (as to date this undefined).”

Blogger’s Note: I’m not sure if John McCain understands that there is a difference between attacking terrorist and attacking a country.

The Overall View…

The initial impression I have of the debate is that the current course of the election has not changed. Barack Obama did not deliver a knockout blow, and John McCain did not deliver a game changing moment.

On economic issues I think that Obama was clearly ahead of McCain, and that McCain may have been stronger on national security issues. However, I think that this debate did not change the minds of voters that have already determined who they would vote for, and it may have help move undecided voters closer to Obama.

The overall view is that the view is the same, and Obama seems to be solidifying himself as Presidential.

On Energy…

McCain: “(On nuclear energy) Senator Obama says you have to clean it or store it or something like that…”

Obama: Senator McCain has said for thirty years there has been nothing done about energy, but he “has been there for twenty-six of them.”

Manhattan Project or 100,000 Garages?

McCain: The most incoherent answer of the night that did not even come close to answering the question.

Is health care as a commodity?

Obama: We will lower the cost of health care by “investing in prevention, and in technology.”

McCain: Health records online will “reduce errors, as they call them.”

Quick Math:

$5,000 Tax Credit -

Average Cost of Health Care: $12,100 =

$7,100 short?

Health Care: Privilege or a Right?

McCain: “Responsibility.”

Obama: “A Right. For every America, in a country as wealth as ours, for people to go without health care…there is something fundamentally wrong with that.”

Half way through the debate it seems that Obama is trying to connect to the average American and seems to continue to be cool, calm and collected. McCain looks very aggressive and is continuously attack Obama on his record.

On Sacrifices…

McCain: There should be a “spending freeze”, except for “national defense and veterans affairs.”

It is ironic that McCain would name veterans affair as something that would have to be an exception in spending cuts when he has a horrible record on veterans’ affairs. John McCain has supported veterans’ issues only 40.7% of the time while Barack Obama has supported veterans’ issues 86%. In fact McCain voted against Health Care for Veterans Amendment (HR 2863), a bill that Obama voted for.

On Spending…

Obama: “That’s using a hatching to cut the federal budget (referring to McCain’s spending freeze proposal), I want to use a scalpel.”

Best line of the night so far: “The straight talk express lost a wheel.” – Obama

Followed by the worst line of the night so far: “It’s not that hard to fix social security.” – McCain

On the Bail Out…

McCain: “I believe it is rescue.”

Obama: “Let me tell you what this rescue package means to you.”

McCain seems to be trying to bring the debate into a conversation about association, while Obama hitting back continues to try to focusing on saying what affect it will have on average Americans.

On Spending…

McCain: “Let’s look at our records, as well as our records.” (McCain then names three conservative “watch dog” organizations.)

On Priorities: Energy, Health Care, Entitlement Reform

McCain: “All three at once.”

Obama: “Energy we have to deal with today. You’re paying $3.80 here in Nashville.”

Obama named energy as priority number one and health care as priority number two.

Already?

You can already vote on who you think the winner of the Presidential Debate is at KBTX. Apparently 53% of respondents think that John McCain has already won the debate, and almost 15% have not watched the debate.

Obama won the coin toss.

 What is the best way to bail out ordinary Americans out of the current economic situation?

Obama: “The middle class need a rescue package.”

McCain: “I have a plan to fix this problem, and it has to do with energy independence.”

Obama looks comfortable, and is walking around comfortable and seems to be connecting with the audience.

McCain seems to be in a familiar environment, but it seems ironic that in this familiar environment that he is in unfamiliar political territory when it comes to his political ideology.

I think McCain made a mistake mentioning that Warren Buffet is an Obama supporter, and then mentioning that Meg Whitman is one of his, Warren Buffett being much more of a recognized name. Obama responded by continuing to his point of attack by focusing on the middle class.

The second Presidential Debate of 2008 is set to begin in fifteen minutes, and Democrats, Republicans and Independents are gathered around the country to listen to this debate.

Welcome to our democratic process…

For up to date debate information, video, and transcript visit C-SPAN’s Debate Hub.

Tonight Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain take the stage for the second time, and less than a week after the Vice Presidential debate. The debate tonight also takes place during a period in which the Obama campaign has made significant advances in several key swing states, and the McCain campaign has pulled out of Michigan and has been spending a significant amount of time in Republican stronghold states such as Florida.

This debate is much more important for Senator McCain than it is for Senator Obama; to use a sports analogy tonight is a must win for McCain. The format might actually favor McCain; the townhall format is something that McCain is quite accustoming to. However, in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll 59% of those polled feel that the economy is the most important issue in the election, and 46% believe that Obama would be better at improving the economy compared to 29% that believe McCain would be better at improving the economy (which is 5% lower than the same poll released on September 22^nd). When 77% of respondents believe that the country is on the wrong track, in becomes just that much harder for McCain to establish himself as the candidate to change the course of the country.

Tonight Senator Obama basically needs to continue the point of attack on the economy and continue to connect with middle class voters. Those who have watched the debates, bloggers, pendants, and voters alike, have all been seemingly waiting for a knockout blow. However, I think that there will not be a knockout blow; I do not believe that is how this election is going to be won. To use another sports analogy, Obama is using a ball control offense. He is controlling the tempo and rhyme of the game, and building a steady lead. This is not an election that will be won in the final four weeks of the campaign, if Obama wins this election it will have been won months ago. Like spring training in April, or two-a-days in August, if the Obama campaign wins the election if will be because they won it months ago.

Expectations:

McCain should look and feel more at ease this debate than he did during the last debate because of the format, however, expect McCain to appear frustrated and possibly visible upset at least once. Obama should perform well and perhaps will be more relaxed and may be more aggressive, however, expect Obama to calm cool and concise and to continue to move closer to success in November.

Live Blogging the Presidential Debate will begin at 7:45p.m. (8:45p.m. Eastern)

T-Shirt Politics: Partisan Aggies Take Debate

By: Brooke Lein

From the Texas A&M University Battalion

Controversy arose when Aggies began sporting T-shirts favoring presidential candidate John McCain that had "Beat the Hell Outta Obama," printed on them.

Since the T-shirts appeared on the shelves of Aggieland Outfitters and Inspirations, they have been criticized by students who argued that the apparel was politically charged and represented Texas A&M negatively.

The stores have since started selling shirts that read, "Beat the Hell Outta McCain." They have placed signs in stores to inform customers that the shirts are not affiliated with A&M.

"If someone that didn't go to A&M, who was unaware of Aggie traditions, saw people wearing these shirts saying 'Beat the Hell Outta' a specific person, it might seem extremely offensive," said Jeff Brannigan, a senior political science major. "And because [Barack Obama] happens to be black, it may also seem extremely racist."

During political seasons, the Department of Student Activities sends e-mails to political organizations on campus warning them not to produce subjective merchandise that uses registered A&M symbols, words or logos.

The registered items include "Aggies," Corps of Cadets logos, "12th Man," and the iconic "aTm" symbol.

In conjunction with official University trademark and licensing rules, each group that chooses to ignore the set guidelines by submitting unauthorized material will no longer be recognized as an official student organization.

"We were very careful not to break the rules, and we wanted to make sure that our original submission was accurate," said Chelsea Noriega, secretary of the Aggie Democrats.

In an effort to follow the University guidelines, Aggie Democrats opted for shirts to display the words, "Students for Obama," rather than "Aggies for Obama." Despite the change, the shirts have been selling well.

"They have been selling like hotcakes," Noriega said. "We've already had to place another order for about a 100 more."

Traditional A&M jargon has been seen on T-shirts sold at Inspirations and Aggieland Outfitters. Shirts with the phrases "Gig 'Em McCain," and "Beat the Hell Outta Obama," have been worn by those associated with the Republican Party as a means of promoting McCain.

"It's funny because I don't think people realize that 'Beat the Hell Outta' is in small letters, and all that can be seen from a distance is 'Obama,'" said journalism senior lecturer Edward Walraven. "So really, people who wear the shirts are actually promoting [Obama] through name recognition."

University policy strictly prohibits the use of licensed merchandise in context with political themes or messages, but according to University trademark rules, A&M does not have control over all of the words and phrases associated with Aggie tradition.

"'BTHO' and 'Gig 'Em' are not registered trademarks of Texas A&M," said Jason Cook, vice president for marketing and communications. "However, the University is looking into any common law trademark issues that may be applicable."

Cook said the Office of Business Development reviews all of the artwork submitted and, in addition to political restrictions, official A&M trademarks are not allowed to be associated with alcohol, drugs, firearms or other items of questionable judgment or taste.

Published on Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Senator John McCain’s campaign pulled out of Michigan yesterday, which was major news that was lost in the excitement over the Vice Presidential debate. This move by the McCain campaign is essentially conceding Michigan to the Obama campaign, and has been done to move resources to other states. In the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll Obama lead McCain in Michigan 51% to 41%, and over the last three weeks Obama has expanded his lead in Michigan by nine points. A big factor in this has been the economy, and according to the same polls’ internal numbers the economy is the number on issue for 69% of voters polled in Michigan. Also, another striking internal number found in the poll was the 91% of those polled where firmly committed to their choice for President. This is important because Michigan is one of the key states that to this election and now it narrows the battle grounds.

Where are the new battle grounds?

The McCain campaign has to defend five different battle ground states while trying to make advances in three to five other states. The McCain campaign has to defend Ohio, if McCain loses Ohio the ball game is over. This week a Fox News/Rasmussen poll had McCain leading Ohio 48-47, an InAdv/PollPosition poll had Obama leading 47-45, a Quinnipiac poll had Obama leading 50-42, a SurveyUSA poll had McCain leading 48-49, and a GQR poll out yesterday had Obama leading 49-43. The last time Michigan and Ohio both where the same color was in 1996, and no candidate has won the Presidency and lost both Michigan and Ohio.

The McCain is also being force to spend resources in Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida. Obama has remained competitive in both Virginia and North Carolina; North Carolina has not voted differently than Virginia since 1976. In Virginia this week a Fox News/Rasmussen poll had Obama leading 50-47, an ARG poll had McCain leading 49-46, a InAdv/PollPosition had Obama leading 51-45, a CNN/Time had Obama leading 53-44, and a Mason-Dixon has McCain leading 48-45. In North Carolina, a state that has been polling well for McCain until recently, this week a PPP poll had Obama leading 47-44, an ARG poll had McCain leading 49-46, and a Rasmussen poll has Obama leading 50-47.

In Florida this week a Fox News/Rasmussen poll was a 47-47 tie, a SurveyUSA had McCain leading 48-47, a PPP poll had Obama leading 49-46, a Quinnipiac had Obama leading 51-43, a Suffolk/WSVN had Obama leading 46-42, a CNN/Time poll had Obama leading 51-47, an InAdv/PollPosition had Obama leading 49-46, and yesterday CNN, Suffolk, and InsiderAdvantage had Obama leading 51-43, 46-42, and 49-46.

This means that the battles are being fought in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, but the war will be won in Colorado, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. As long as the Obama campaign is keeping those four states competitive it will prevent the McCain campaign from focusing their efforts in the other three. Assuming that Obama wins New England, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and the west coast, those three states are the key to victory.

Just one month ago the McCain campaign suggested that Florida may be competitive but that it would be won by McCain, while viewing Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania as keys to the election and winning two out of those three states was necessary for victory. With the McCain campaign pulling out of Michigan, and Obama pulling further and further ahead in Michigan it place much more significance on Ohio. But, more importantly if McCain loses one of the following states: Virginia, North Carolina, or Missouri, then McCain will more than likely have to win two of the following states: Colorado, Wisconsin or Minnesota. If Obama wins Florida then McCain would have to win all three of those states plus New Mexico.

So what is the decided factor in the race? Ground game. The Obama campaign built an impressive ground game, and it was the volunteers and supporters that helped win the primary. As the general election has continued on the ground game has helped Obama build leads and become competitive in states, there has been a slow and steady build towards Election Day. While the Obama campaign has been built on strategy, the McCain campaign has been built on tactics. The McCain campaign may have energized the conservative evangelical base, but the problem is that it does not matter how energized the base is if you do not have an organized ground game.

The bottom line is as long as the Obama campaign continues to force the McCain campaign to tactically react to the Obama campaign strategy the blue states will get bluer and the red states will continue to fade.

Sunday: Left of College Station’s Electoral College projection, and a look at the election at 30 days out.