Left of College Station

Is Dixville Notch Predictive?

Americans Line Up to Choose President

A Historic Election, No Matter the Outcome

The polls opened in places like Boston, Massachusetts, Charlotte, North Carolina, and Miami, Florida one hour ago. Now, the polls are open in places like Minneapolis, Minnesota, Omaha, Nebraska, and of course Bryan and College Station, Texas. Left of College Station will be covering the election throughout the day.

At this moment I am at my polling station, and I will be voting for change.

leftofaggieland will be covering the 2008 General Election throughout the day. Beginning with a report from the polling place; an account of casting my vote. Then throughout the day leftofaggieland will be posting reports from the polls, and following the news locally, statewide, and nationally. Later tomorrow evening leftofaggieland will be posting live reports from the Brazos County Democratic Party Election Party. Stay up with leftofaggieland and listen the nation’s voice be heard.

GallupDaily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 53% (+3)

McCain: 40% (-2)

Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 50% (-1)

McCain: 42%

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:

“The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking.” I am not exactly sure what Republican pollster Bill McInturff means by impressive strides. According to the Gallup Daily tracking poll since October 20^th Senator Obama has not dropped below 50% in the poll and Senator McCain has not risen above 43%.

This morning on MSNBC McInturff pushed the idea that the majority of undecided voters, which is between four and eight percent, will break for McCain.

In Pennsylvania, where the McCain campaign has been spending a substantial amount of time and money, Obama has maintained a lead as large as 14 points and Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama leading the state 52.5%-41.5%. Generally speaking if a candidate is poll above fifty percent it is difficult for the opponent to have a realistic chance of winning; not only is McCain going to have to shave off 2.5% of Obama’s lead but all of the 6% of undecided will have to break for McCain. This means that in order for McCain to win you are talking about a 9 point swing in one week.

However, in Ohio where the Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama leading 49.1%-43.3% McCain still has a significant chance of winning the state. With 8% of the electorate still undecided if the votes break at upwards of 70% in Ohio towards McCain, as MSNBC Political Director Chuck Todd suggest, then Ohio can be in reach for McCain. However, McCain’s polling numbers have been trending down in Ohio over the last week while Obama’s polling numbers have remained strong.

In Florida the Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama only leading 48.6%-45.1%, and if 70% of the undecided voters break for McCain he could win Florida. However, in the last week McCain’s numbers have been trending down in Florida while Obama’s have been trending up. What is the most significant thing about Ohio and Florida is that McCain must win both to have a realistic chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.  

The problem with McInturff analysis and even Todd’s take is that this election is not a prototypically election by any stretch of the imagination, and in fact November 4^th could change much of political theory. Also, one must take into account that the polls could be actually showing Obama’s numbers lower than they actual are. Pollsters tend to use a model their polls in a way that could be outdated. Last month there were reports about a Pew Research Center study which concluded that “growing population of cell-only users from public opinion polls may slightly skew the results.” Also, pollsters tend not to consider people who have not voted in the last two election cycles as likely voters, and in this election there may well be a record amount of new voters.

Reid Wilson of Real Clear Politics called the memo “infotainment;” Chuck Todd characterization of the memo was to “improve the morale of the party.” Perhaps if the GOP and Republican voters really want a moral boost they should check out Bill O’Reilly’s electoral map at Fox News. That map has to be one of the most ridiculous pieces of electoral analysis; Obama is actually behind McCain in the electoral count 189-183. States where Obama has large double digit leads like Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan, O’Reilly has listed as “toss-up.” Whether or not Bill O’Reilly is actually in touch with reality is a toss-up.

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 50% (-2)

McCain: 43% (+1)

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 51%

McCain: 42%

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:

Battleground Polls:

Ohio (Reuters/Zogby)

Obama: 50%

McCain: 45%

Florida (Reuters/Zogby)

Obama: 47%

McCain: 47%

Virginia (Reuters/Zogby)

Obama: 52%

McCain: 45%

Virginia (Washington Post)

Obama: 52%

McCain: 44%

Virginia (VCU)

Obama: 51%

McCain: 40%  

Virginia (SurveyUSA)

Obama: 52%

McCain: 43%

North Carolina (Reuters/Zogby)

Obama: 50%

McCain: 46%

Missouri (Reuters/Zogby)

Obama: 48%

McCain: 46%

Missouri (SurveyUSA)

Obama: 48%

McCain: 48%

Indiana (Reuters/Zogby)

McCain: 50%

Obama: 44%

Nevada (Reuters/Zogby)

Obama: 48%

McCain: 44%

GallupDaily Tracking Poll: 

Obama: 50% (-1)

McCain: 43% (+1)

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:

Big Ten Battleground Poll:

Average:

Obama: 54.6%

McCain: 38.5%

Illinois

Obama 61%

McCain 32%

Indiana

Obama 51%

McCain 41%

Iowa

Obama 52%

McCain 39%

Michigan

Obama 58%

McCain 36%

Minnesota

Obama 57%

McCain 38%

Ohio

Obama 53%

McCain 41%

Pennsylvania

Obama 52%

McCain 41%

Wisconsin

Obama 53%

McCain 40%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 51% (-1)

McCain: 42% (+1)

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:

GallupDaily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 52%

McCain: 41%

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:
 

GallupDaily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 52% (+2)

McCain: 41% (-2)

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:

Early Voting Begins Today

By Janet Phelps

From the Bryan-College Station Eagle

Brazos County officials are predicting a record turnout for the Nov. 4 election. Early voting begins Monday.

In addition to state and national races, area voters will choose a district attorney and county tax assessor-collector. College Station voters will voice their opinion on a $110 million bond issue.

Early voting continues through Oct. 31.

Brazos County Clerk Karen McQueen said officials have brought out more voting machines in anticipation of the large crowds expected this week.

"The voters are going to have to stand in lines, but hopefully not as long as they would," she said.

McQueen encourages residents to vote early to "get it out of the way."

A record number of voters are registered in Brazos County this year, said Kristeen Roe, the county's voter registrar and tax assessor-collector.

The county's 93,292 registered voters include 4,500 people who registered for the first time this year, she said.

McQueen said the presidential race has sparked a lot of interest.

"It's just been a very hot race," she said.

In local contested races, Roe, a Republican, is facing Libertarian John Roemer.

Longtime incumbent Democrat Bill Turner is seeking re-election as district attorney against former district judge and Republican Rick Davis.

Brazos County voters will also get to choose between District 17 incumbent, U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, a Waco Democrat, and his challenger, Republican Rob Curnock, also of Waco.

And John Cornyn, a Republican, is seeking a second term in the U.S. Senate. He is being challenged by Democrat Rick Noriega, a state representative from Houston.

College Station city officials have proposed a $110 million bond issue that would provide improvements to parks and transportation as well as construct a new city hall, community center and fire station.

Early voting sites in Brazos County are: The Brazos County Courthouse, Arena Hall on Tabor Road, Galilee Baptist Church on Logan Avenue, Grace Bible Church on Texas 6 and the Memorial Student Center on the Texas A&M University campus.

Those sites will be open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturday, 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Sunday, and 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Oct. 27 to Oct. 31.

McQueen said volunteers may still be needed for early voting. To volunteer, call Jaime Hines at 361-4121.

Published Monday, October 20, 2008

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 49% (-1)

McCain: 43%

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:
 

Debate Polls:

CNN/Opinion Research Corp

Obama: 58%

McCain: 31%

CBS News/Knowledge Networks

Obama: 53%

McCain: 22%

Politico/InsiderAdvantage

Obama: 49%

McCain: 46%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 50% (-1)

McCain: 43% (+1)

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map:

Other National Polls:

National Ipsos/McClatchy

Obama: 48%

McCain: 39%

National Pew Research

Obama: 49%

McCain: 42%

National GW/Battleground Tracking

Obama: 51%

McCain: 43%

National Rasmussen Tracking

Obama: 50%

McCain: 45%

National Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking

Obama: 48%

McCain: 44%

National Hotline/FD Tracking

Obama: 49%

McCain: 41%

While speaking to a small group of students on a Texas college campus last week Rob Curnock said that the reason he would be more qualified and a stronger advocate for veterans than Congressman Chet Edwards is because his father served in World War II. “My opponent has nothing on me there.”

As a veteran I can say this will complete authority: when it comes to veterans issues Rob Curnock has nothing on Chet Edwards.

Congressman Edwards has a distinguished voting record on veterans’ issues. In 2006 Edwards received voting rankings from the Disabled American Veterans of 100%, the Retired Enlisted Association of 86%, and the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Edwards a grade of A-. In fact Edwards has received a perfect vote ranking from the Disabled American Veterans for the last three years. As the Chairman of the House Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Subcommittee Edwards increased veterans' health care funding to $11.8 billion and because of his seniority in Congress is able to be a strong voice for veterans.

Curnock has spent much of his campaign talking about associations, and according to his campaign web site “You are the company you keep…” Apparently the company that Curnock keeps is Senator John McCain and Congressman John Boehner, while the company that Chet Edwards keeps is Senator Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi. When it comes to veterans issues the company you keep speaks volumes. McCain has supported veterans’ issues an average of 40.7% of the time, and in 2006 received vote rankings from the Disabled American Veterans of 20%, the Retired Enlisted Association 18%, and the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave McCain a grade of D. In 2006 Boehner received vote rankings from the Disabled American Veterans of 66%, the Retired Enlisted Association of 7%, and the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Boehner a grade of C. While in 2006 Obama received voting rankings from the Disabled American Veterans of 80% and the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Obama a grade of B+. Pelosi received voting rankings from the Disabled American Veterans of 100% and the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Pelosi a grade of B+.

In Curnock’s “Open Letter to My Veteran Friends” he suggest that the “the vast majority of America’s veterans” are conservative. I think it is misleading to suggest that the vast majority of veterans are conservative, especially when you consider that more military members have donated to the Obama Campaign than the McCain Campaign; 859 members of the military donated a total of $335,536 to Obama, while McCain received $280,513 from 558 military donors.

In the same letter Curnock suggest that Congressman Edwards does not support the troops because he voted to “cut off funding and bring our troops back in defeat” by voting for HR-1591, which President Bush vowed to veto because it included a timeline for withdrawal, and because prohibited the use of funds offered under the act to deploy any troops to Iraq unless the military has certified to congressional appropriators in advance. However McCain, who is among the company that Curnock keeps, threatened to cut off unlimited funding for the troops before, and has called for troop withdrawal before.

“There's no reason for the US to remain. The American people want them home. I believe the majority of Congress wants them home. What should be the criteria is our immediate, orderly withdrawal. And if we do not do that and other Americans die then I say that the responsibilities for that lie with the Congress who did not exercise their authority under the Constitution. For us to get into nation-building, law and order, etc., I think, is a tragic and terrible mistake."

-Senator John McCain on Somalia in 1993

We must end the war in Iraq. A war that the American people strongly oppose. A war that has cost the lives of 4,180 of our service members. A war that has cost us $562,500,000,000. A war in which the definition of victory has never been made clear. A war that has gone on 1,994 days after the declaration of Mission Accomplished in Iraq. A war that has gone on even though 2,590 days since September 11, 2001 we have still not captured or killed Osama bin Laden.

I am tired of politicians, pundits and others hiding behind words like retreat and surrender; when they have given up nothing and our soldiers, airmen, sailors and marines have given up everything.

There is more to supporting the troops than securing federal funding for veterans and active duty military members, but it is ridiculous to suggest that Congressman Edwards does not “share the core values of the men and women fight for us.” As one of those veterans I can tell you that Chet Edwards unequivocally shares the values of me and my fellow veterans.

Retired four-star General Tom Schwartz, former Commander in Chief of U.S. Forces Korea, said, “In 39 years of military and public service I have never known an elected official who cares so much for our service members and their families. Chet is a leader in fighting for a strong national defense and the well-being of those who serve.”

The truth is that as a veteran I am lead to believe that Rob Curnock is much like the rest of his Republican colleagues; they thank veterans with their words but not with their actions.  

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Obama: 51%

McCain: 42% (+1)

Other National Polls:

National Rasmussen Tracking

Obama: 50%

McCain: 45%

National Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking

Obama: 49%

McCain: 43%

National Hotline/FD Tracking

Obama: 48%

McCain: 42%

Election Officials Expect Big Turnout and Warn: Vote Early or Expect a Line

By Erin Quinn (Tribune-Herald staff writer)

From the Waco Tribune-Herald

McLennan County Elections Administrator Kathy Van Wolfe says preparing for Election Day is like planning a wedding. It’s expensive. Time-consuming. Exhausting.

And in the end, you just want people to show up.

“And then nobody comes,” she said, describing turnout at previous elections.

This year, though, Van Wolfe expects the guestbook to be full on the big day: the presidential election on Nov. 4.

In McLennan County, 135,037 residents are registered to go to the polls next month — including some new ones involuntarily relocated by Hurricane Ike. That’s up from the 127,987 who were signed up to vote in the county’s March primaries.

Comparing this year’s numbers with those from November 2004 — when 387 fewer voters were on county rolls — is harder, Van Wolfe said.

Because of the number of people who move, die or commit felonies, Van Wolfe said the number of registered voters is ever-changing, adjusted as her office gets daily reports from the state, county, city and justices of the peace.

Across the state, voter registration numbers are up by more than 300,000 since the presidential vote in 2004, when 59 percent of McLennan County’s registered voters cast ballots.

“Where we’re going to see the numbers increase is in participation,” Van Wolfe said. “I think it’s going to be historic for us.”

In the past weeks and months of preparations, Van Wolfe’s office has worked weekends, come in early and stayed late. They’ve fielded calls from everyone from homeless Hurricane Ike evacuees wanting to register here to grandparents of Baylor University and McLennan Community College students making sure their loved ones are registered.

Because of the expected turnout, Van Wolfe said she is urging election judges at each precinct to have their fastest person work the sign-in book.

“In previous elections, this position could take the time to eat or take bathroom breaks,” she said. “I don’t think it’s going to be like that this year.”

Texas Secretary of State Esperanza “Hope” Andrade stopped at the McLennan County elections office Monday morning in hopes of spreading the message of early voting. Andrade is visiting 28 counties and calling the rest of the state’s counties in the coming weeks, she said.

“We wanted to meet with the people who are actually doing the work,” Andrade said. “There’s a lot of energy in this election. We want people to know that if you wait until Nov. 4 to vote, you’re going to wait in line.”

In the 2000 general election, her office reports, there were 12.3 million registered voters statewide, with a 51.8 percent voter turnout. In the 2004 presidential election, the number of registered voters jumped to 13.1 million, with a 56 percent voter turnout. In the March 4 primaries, the state broke a 20-year record for primary voter turnout, with 33 percent of the 12.7 million registered voters, according to Andrade’s office.

This year, Andrade said turnout could be as much as 80 percent of registered voters.

Van Wolfe said she already is seeing an increase in participation. In past elections, she said about 4,000 mail-in ballots had been requested. This year, with the deadline Oct. 31, she said she expects to send out about 8,000 vote-by-mail ballots.

There will be 350 election workers at the county’s 92 precincts on Election Day, she said.

Both of the two major political parties are still taking volunteers locally.

Although the push to get people registered has passed with the Oct. 6 deadline, both parties say they are busy.

“We’re doing 15 hours a day selling McCain/Palin yard signs,” said the county’s Republican Party Chairman M.A. Taylor, whose office is actually only open until 5 p.m. but said “by the end of the day, it feels like it.”

In the next couple of weeks, volunteers will call people to remind them to vote, he said.

Lola Hopper, volunteer coordinator for the local Democratic Party, said phone banks have already begun. Volunteers are calling voters from 5 p.m. to 11 p.m. every night, she said, adding that volunteers call homes on the West Coast during the latter parts of their shifts.

Along with training election workers and urging people to vote early, Van Wolfe said she will spend the coming weeks educating potential voters on what to do before hitting the “cast ballot” button.

While there is a lot of work to do, she said, including staying late and working more weekends at the county elections office, Van Wolfe is full of energy.

“We’re excited. People are excited,” she said. “We know all of our work will pay off.”

Published on Tuesday, October 14, 2008

The following map is a projection of the Presidential Election based on polling, voter registration, and demographic data. The following states will be decided by 1% or less: Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida.

President:

Obama (D): 278

McCain (R): 260

Senator (Texas):

John Cornyn (R): 54%

Rick Noriega (D): 46%

Congressman (Texas HD-17):

Chet Edwards (D): 60%

Rob Curnock (R): 40%

Texas House (HD-17)

Donnie Dippel (D): 50%

Tim Kleinschmidt (R): 49%

Alan W. Duesterhoft (L): 1%

The national presidential polls seemed to tighten this weekend, but the polls opened up again today and the state polls continue to trend towards Senator Obama. According to Real Clear Politics every poll that has come out today, both national and state polls, has had Obama leading Senator McCain except for in Georgia where McCain has an 8 point lead and a tie in North Carolina. Left of College Station is now projecting Nevada to be won by Obama, and FiveThirtyEight is projecting that Obama has a 93.8% chance of winning the election.

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: 

Obama: 51% (-1)

McCain: 41%

FiveThirtyEight Electoral Map: