Left of College Station

Vice Presidential Debate (Live Blogging Part 5)

On Taking Over the Presidency?

Biden: “I would carry out Barack Obama’s policies.”

Palin: “I would bring reality from Wasilla Main Street.”

Palin: “You have a choice between raised taxes and fewer taxes.”

Biden: “Ask the people in my neighborhood if they are better off now than they were eight years ago.”

At the end of the of the debate Senator Biden had a great moment, he talked about what it is like to be a single parent and what it is like being in a family when it having tough time. Then after becoming what could only be described as emotional and sincere he said what he thought the American people are looking for:

“They’re looking for help; they’re not looking for more of the same.”

Final Thoughts…

Senator Biden really came across as an elder statesman. The focus of Biden’s criticisms was Senator McCain and President Bush. One of the most important elements of Biden’s debate style was that he was aggressive, but he did not come across as abrasive.

Governor Palin came across as amateurish, and when she was unable to answer a question she reverted to the talking points and the quotes from her stumps speech.

Bottom Line:

Who won the debate? If this debate was about a choice between change and more of the same, then Biden won.

Will this debate change the election? Probably not.

The debate shifts to Foreign Policy…

On a Plan for Iraq:

Palin: Surge, Hero General Petraeus, surge, Hero Jon McCain, we have to win, surge, can’t lose against Al-Qaeda, surge.

Biden: “I did not hear a plan.” Biden then laid out Obama’s plan for ending the war in Iraq, and once again was statistically heavy.

“We will end this war. John McCain, no end in sight.”

Palin: Leaving Iraq would be a white flag of surrender. Surge, Iraq has to govern itself, surges, commanders on the ground will tell us, surge, victory in sight, Obama voted against funding the troops (she might have thought surge).

Biden: McCain voted against funding of the troops because it included a time line.

Iran and Pakistan:

Biden: Central front of the War on Terror is not in Iraq, the front of the War on Terror is in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

On Preconditions:

Are Secretary States wrong?

Palin: No. But they hate American, they hate our freedoms.

Biden: Past is prologue. How are his policies different than George Bush’s?

The first half of the debate has seemed to favor Biden slightly. However, it is hard to really gauge the debate until after it is complete.

Biden is really focusing on criticizing John McCain, however, Biden and has been statistically heavy and has been using lots of numbers.

Palin seems to be performing to expectations; however, as the debate has moved on she has seemed to tighten up.

One observation is that the Vice Presidential candidates are looking at each other much more than the Presidential candidates did. Well, Palin is looking at Biden much more than McCain looked at Obama.

On Climate Change:

Palin: Not everyone causes climate change, followed by nonsensical answer about the environment.

Biden: Clearly man made: “If you do not know what the cause is, than it is virtually impossible to come up with the solution.” This is where Biden tied it together; Biden equated reversing climate change with creating jobs.

Do you support same-sex benefits?

Biden: Absolutely.

Palin: Not if it redefines traditional marriage, but I will be tolerant of adults and their choices.

Who’s at fault for the current economic crisis?

Palin believes that predatory lenders are to blame.

Who does Palin ask about the economic crisis? Joe Six Pack and Hockey Mom’s Across the Nation.

Biden asks someone else named Joe how much does it take to fill your gas tank? Joe said, “I don’t know, I never have enough.”

“I may not answer the question the way the moderator may want, but I’m going to talk strait.”

On Taxes:

Biden used the 100 million house hold stat against McCain, and the 95% of Americans who will receive tax cuts. The word “middle class” is being used liberally, to say the least.

Palin pushes the $5,000 health care tax “credit,” and characterizes Obama’s tax plan as a “redistribution of wealth.”

“We don’t call that redistribution of wealth, we care that fairness.”

Joe Biden seems in good form tonight, he is calm and concise and when are able to through in calling McCain’s health care plan the “ultimate bridge to nowhere (which got a reaction from the audience.)

“Can I call you Joe?” - Palin to Biden

Joe Biden won the coin toss.

The first question is about the bailout.

Biden answers by highlighting the economic policies of the last eight year, and the lays out Senator Obama’s economic policies.

The second question is about bi-partisanship.

Palin answers by talking about soccer games, and the stock market. Then she points to Senator McCain “suspending” his campaign.

The second answer Biden is attack McCain’s economic policies, and reminds us about McCain and the “fundamentals” of the economy.

Palin reminded us that we should take the “maverick of the Senate, and send him to the White House.”

Tonight Governor Sarah Palin will debate Senator Joe Biden. Could this Vice Presidential debate have more affect on the election than any other Vice Presidential debate in history?

In 2004 Vice President Dick Cheney debated Congressman John Edwards in Cleveland, Ohio on October 5^th. Throughout August of 2004 President Bush maintained about a 2% advantage in the polls on Senator John Kerry, and throughout September President Bush maintained about a 8% advantage, and as much as a 12% advantage, in the polls on Senator Kerry. However, after the September 30^th Presidential debate, in which 57% of those polls cited Senator Kerry as having performed better in the debate, President Bush and Senator Kerry were tied in the polls. In fact the polls did not change until after the third and final Presidential debate on October 13^th.

The 2000 Vice Presidential debate between Vice Presidential candidate Dick Cheney and Senator Joseph Lieberman has often been called one of the most civil and polite debates in presidential politics. The debate took place on October 5^th at Centre College in Danville, KY, and it received 18.1 million less viewers than the first Presidential debate. Throughout most of September Vice President Gore held about a 6% advantage in the polls on Governor Bush, and as much as a 10% advantage, but at the end of September the polls tightened. As the debates grew closer Vice President Gore appeared to open up a lead of up to 11%, however after the first Presidential debate, which was held two days before the Vice Presidential debate, Governor Bush opened up a small lead that would hold through most of October.

The affect of the Vice Presidential debates on the elections historically could be described as minimal. It is commonly thought that the electorate votes for the top of the ticket. However, this election the Vice Presidential debate could be much more important that the last Vice Presidential debates.

Senator Biden has been preparing for the debate with Michigan Governor Jennifer M. Granholm, and while the expectations for Biden are much higher than they are for Governor Palin what Biden needs to do to ensure a favorable performance is to simply let Palin speak. Biden should not go on the offensive against Palin, must instead go on the offensive against Senator McCain and President Bush’s policies. The bottom line is that this debate is much more important for the Republican candidates than it is for the Democratic candidates. With the Obama campaign surging ahead in the national polls and making strides in several key battle group states the McCain campaign cannot afford an embarrassing showing in the debate tonight.

Despite the expectations I have a suspicion that this particular debate will have little overall affect on the election. However, this election has changed the dynamics of politics, and we are presented with an unprecedented future. So, what could tonight’s debate mean for the election? Just about any answer could be right. The next month is going to change American politics forever. Will tonight be one of the nights we point at as a watershed moment?